The Turkish deep-sea imported ferrous scrap market saw a slight price rebound, with US-origin HMS 80:20 assessed at $339/t CFR, up $4/tonne w-o-w basis. The price rally was driven more by supply-side scarcity than by demand-side strength. The proliferation of supply scarcity, rather than market demand, was underpinned by the limited availability of materials, particularly from traditional markets (the US and EU). Only 10-12 cargoes were confirmed for September compared to the monthly average of 20-24. Additionally, freight rates, firming at $42-45/t and rising collection costs in exporting countries driven by seasonal grain movement and logistics pressures in Europe related to energy supply, caused suppliers to increase offers in the face of weak steel demand in Turkey.

Outlook:

The market is projected to remain strong in the short-term as prices are expected to gravitate towards a CFR price range of $330-340/t, depending on origin. Buyers are also still looking to book shipments for October, and with bookings not fully covered yet, buying engagement will take place in the last week of September. Demand for long steel domestically in Turkey is still sluggish, though mills may still be able to tolerate modest increases in scrap prices, as the rebar-to-scrap margins remain respectable at $195-200/t. The high US dollar and significant freight rates will still be an obstacle to restricting movements. Overall, price support will continue in the near-term; nevertheless, further price appreciation on scrap will depend on continued tightness in supply and the demand for steel turning around.