Turkish deep-sea imported scrap prices have seen a significant decline in recent weeks, driven by political instability, weak rebar demand, and increased interest in more affordable billet imports. After peaking at $383-$384/t CFR in March, HMS 1&2 scrap prices have dropped sharply to $324–$325/t CFR in June, before rebounding slightly. The prices as of 22nd July 2025 were $346–$347/t CFR.  

The sharp decline in scrap prices has been particularly concerning for Turkish mills. Major reasons were impacting the prices due to less demand from major countries and political instability, particularly following the March arrest of Istanbul’s mayor, which played a key role in driving uncertainty in the market. The political instability had created a hesitant atmosphere among investors and mills, further contributing to cautious purchasing behaviour.

Along with it, India’s shift towards using domestic scrap and Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) over imported scrap. Due to the ample availability of domestic scrap, the Indian mills prefer it over imported scrap. This trend, combined with the weak rebar market and monsoon slowdown, means scrap prices in India are likely to remain suppressed, limiting any rebound for Turkish scrap exports.

Indian rebar prices are also seen continuously declining, driven by weak demand, high inventory levels, and a wait-and-watch approach from buyers. BF rebar prices have dropped to INR 48,400/t ($562/t), and IF rebar prices are at INR 43,400/t ($504/t). With oversupply and soft demand, price corrections are expected to persist in both the rebar and scrap markets.

Outlook:

The outlook for Turkish scrap prices is likely to remain uncertain. Indian demand for imported scrap is unlikely to recover in the near term due to the increased use of domestic scrap and DRI. The Turkish scrap market is likely to face downward pressure due to weak demand in the global steel market and political instability in Turkey.

The domestic rebar prices can further see a downward trend, as weak demand persists, and the monsoon slowdown continues to affect market activity. Indian mills will continue relying on local scrap and DRI, limiting the need for imports and contributing to a more subdued market. Prices in both scrap and rebar markets are expected to remain volatile, with no immediate recovery in sight.