As of early October 2025, hot-rolled coil (HRC) pricing in India remains stable at approximately ₹48,500 per tonne (ex-Mumbai) for standard grades such as IS2062, Gr E250 BR. This price range has remained relatively stable since September, fluctuating between ₹48,000 and ₹49,000/tonne, with lower domestic demand and market participants adopting a cautious approach as the festive season approaches. Distributors are maintaining the momentum of activity while not taking on inventory value and executing spot transactions. The current global price for the HRC benchmark is roughly $804/tonne, reported to be a slight month-on-month increase; however, there is good strength with upward movement over the last year of almost 11% in pricing, with supply constraints in the market and relatively good recovery in global demand markets. In comparison to regional pricing, it is significantly lower. as an example, FOB HRC pricing from China is near $471/tonne because of oversupply and subdued domestic demand.

Outlook

In the near term, India's domestic HRC market is expected to remain rangebound, with price movement largely influenced by post-festive restocking trends and any shifts in raw material costs. Demand could resume starting in late October as activity in construction and manufacturing picks up following the holidays. As for exports, Indian mills are likely to see a rebound in volumes to the Middle East, where infrastructure spending continues to support steel consumption even though FOB prices are under pressure. Sentiment should remain weak in Europe amidst macroeconomic uncertainty, which may be limiting prices. Overall, while global prices are showing some firmness, local headwinds, especially relating to oversupply from China, will weigh on price stability relative to global pressures and uncertainties.