The imported hot-rolled coil (HRC) offers in India are costlier than the domestic prices, primarily due to government-imposed safeguard duties and import thresholds. According to traders on the West Coast, the China & Japan offers are $510/t and $505/t CFR India, respectively. However, when you factor in duties and handling fees, the last landed cost will be ₹57,088/t (Chinese HRC) and ₹52,445/t (Japanese HRC).

However, the domestic HRC prices remained more competitive at ₹49,500/t /t (ex-Mumbai, excluding GST). The ongoing government support through various policy measures is beneficial for domestic producers. The safeguard duty of 12% (plus cess) that applies to imports below a threshold of $675/t has rendered imports relatively less attractive and resulted in a 37% year-over-year reduction in HRC imports in August 2025. South Korea, China, and Japan continued to supply HRC.

In the meantime, domestic steelmakers have raised prices by ₹750–1,000/t for September sales, on the back of a modest ₹500/t rise in trade-level prices in August. Notably, a tight domestic market sentiment is evidenced by the very low level of imports. Japanese imports are the best alternative to supply steel as they benefit from a duty exemption under the FTA.

Outlook:

The market is anticipated to remain firm, with policy measures continuing to protect and strengthen the steel industry.