The prices of HRC and CRC steel in Mumbai varied significantly from July to September due to seasonal, economic, and global events. The sharp decline in HRC prices was observed amid subdued monsoon-season demand, elevated inventories, liquidity constraints, and increased imports, all of which were pressuring the domestic market. The impact of the monsoon season created conditions that slowed construction activity, which led to a decrease in demand. Furthermore, industrial buyers were cautious and delayed orders due to higher inventories and expectations of price reductions. Finally, high steel imports from across the globe (China, South Korea, and Japan) put downward pressure on domestic pricing by creating competition.

In spite of these headwinds, Indian steel mills kept production steady, and with production steady, supply was sufficient. Raw material costs, such as iron ore and coking coal, were volatile and had a moderate net impact on the cost of steel production. The anticipated implementation of safeguard duties at the end of August began to influence market sentiment, shifting the market to an upper price cycle by creating some upward price pressure due to market implications of possible limitations on imports.

Globally, weak demand from China’s property sector created volatility, although this was partially offset by infrastructure-led growth in other economies. Domestically, elevated inventories at ports and trading channels have continued to impact prices being reached in the supply chain, and by September, those inventories began to return to a mixed state, spawning some positive infrastructure and real estate activity.

Despite occasional mill-led list price hikes, HRC and CRC prices at the trade level largely remained range-bound through this period, reflecting subdued buying sentiment and resistance to price increases. Mumbai, in particular, saw limited trade-level movement even as list prices were adjusted upward.

Outlook:

Heavy rainfall and flooding in parts of Punjab and Delhi have caused short-term disruptions, hindering construction and affecting steel demand. Overall, the outlook for HRC and CRC steel prices is moderately positive. Once floodwaters recede, the rebuilding and the recovery of demand after the monsoon will be good news for increased steel consumption. Furthermore, the impending implementation of safeguard duties on imports will provide some support to domestic prices, which could see increases of ₹1,000–2,000 per tonne. Generally, the downside risks from shifts in global supply and the potential volatility of raw material prices notwithstanding, it is likely that India will see strong steel demand growth of 8–9% in 2025, led by developments in the infrastructure and automotive sectors. This would suggest that as we move further into the year, prices would likely be gradually stabilized, and moderate growth from there would eventually be realistic.