India’s steel trade in 2025 reflects a tactical rebalancing rather than a structural turnaround. After years of fluctuating trade balances, the country has experienced periods of export improvement alongside a sharp contraction in imports, particularly in the latter part of the year. While late-year gains in exports have narrowed the gap, India’s overall position for the year remains that of a net importer, driven by higher import volumes earlier in 2025.

Global steel demand remained largely stagnant in 2025, with weak construction in China, slower industrial growth in Europe, and cautious capital expenditure in developed economies constraining consumption. Excess capacity in producing regions intensified competition for export markets, while trade barriers—including US tariffs, EU safeguards, and emerging carbon-related regulations—disrupted traditional trade routes. The result was a fragmented global steel market, where short-term arbitrage and tactical shipments increasingly replaced long-term stable flows.

Imports were a significant feature of India’s trade early in the year, supported by aggressive global pricing. However, the government’s 12% safeguard duty on finished steel imports, effective for 200 days and expiring in November 2025, sharply curtailed low-priced inflows. By November, imports declined to approximately 0.39 million tonnes, down 52.5% year-on-year and lower sequentially. Cumulatively, during April–September FY26, India imported 4.19 million tonnes, marking a 36% year-on-year decline. This compression in imports played a critical role in reducing the trade deficit and stabilising domestic steel prices.

While the growth in exports was driven largely by opportunism rather than structural changes, Indian manufacturers capitalized on temporary voids created by disruptions in the global supply chain and increased demand for certain products in particular locations. Exports soared during November 2025, with an increase of 83% from the same month last year and 14.6% from October 2025 when Indian exporters shipped 0.73 million tonnes (MTP) of products to foreign buyers. A review of the domestic export market revealed that cumulative exports from April through September of FY26 were 4.18 million tonnes, representing an increase of 33% relative to the same period last year, with the primary destination countries being the EU (due to restocking in anticipation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism [CBAM]), the UAE, and Nepal (where low prices and flexible shipping conditions enabled shipment of large volumes). Additionally, the gradual shift toward using flat, coated, and specialty steels permitted Indian exporters to improve their competitive position relative to other nations on the basis of the product type exported.

India's increased total export volume does not negate the fact that it was still a net importer of total exports during the period examined; therefore, it must be reiterated that the vast majority of the improvement seen at the end of the year resulted from reductions in imports and not from significant increases in exports. Nevertheless, policy incentives, strength and stability of domestic demand, especially from infrastructure and manufacturing, combined with targeting strategies to reach specific foreign markets, enabled India to withstand recent global economic downturns better than many of its international competitors.

An overview of India’s steel trade in 2025 highlights the continued importance of balancing domestic activities with international obligations and the bilateral trade balance due to the volatility of the future global steel marketplace. The availability of export opportunities later in the year provided the chance to make up for some of the deficits that had been accumulated during the preceding quarters; maintaining stable trading relationships will require the ongoing management of imported steel, developing new markets, increasing the quality of the steel products produced, and ensuring compliance with national policies that promote sustainable development and compliance with new carbon-related regulations. It also remains to be seen how well India can combine domestic capacity developments with the other factors listed above to create stable and sustainable export growth over time.