Indian Steel imports dropped markedly by 14% y-o-y during April–August 2025, following a suite of regulatory initiatives aimed at curbing the extensive inflow of imported steel. Overall imports fell to 3.93 million tonnes (mnt), with flat carbon steel imports slipping 30% year-over-year (y-o-y). This decline included a 39% y-o-y drop in hot-rolled (HR) products and a 11% decline in stainless steel imports. The safeguard duty on flat steel products plays an important role in these declines since it raised landed costs (the final cost of the imported product, including any duties and tariffs) to levels that were above domestic market prices, thus removing the advantage of import costs. Looking at countries exporting steel to India, imports from China and Japan fell by 50% and 46%, respectively, while Vietnam became the third-largest exporter of steel to India, overtaking Japan. The increase in semi-finished steel products signifies the  selective demand of Indian domestic producers that are looking to source from foreign producers.

Outlook:

India's steel imports are likely to stay low in the short term, due to the effects of anti-dumping duties on imports from Vietnam and China, as well as the safeguard duty on flat steel imports. The steel ministry's effort to tighten BIS norms could potentially curb sub-standard imports even more, but we do not know how enforcement can change behaviour. Although regulatory measures are adequately reducing imports from major ports such as China and Japan, there are still potential trade diversions due to global oversupply or geopolitical unrest. Overall, we feel the risks of imports remain pessimistic and rely heavily on sustained governmental support and a constantly changing global trade framework.