India’s steel and stainless-steel exports rose 22% y-o-y to 3.20 million tonnes in April–August 2025, driven primarily by a 32% surge in shipments to the EU. This increase was largely driven by a 32% increase in exports to the EU. The increase in EU shipments was due to buyers frontloading purchases in advance of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which begins in January 2026. Hot-rolled coil and pipe or tube exports increased, while CRC and galvanised steel products declined, indicating variable regional demand and demand across products. Exports to Nepal and the UAE saw modest gains, while shipments to Vietnam and Saudi Arabia significantly declined in part due to Chinese competitive pricing and overall weak regional demand. Stainless steel exports remained largely stable, but face headwinds from an ongoing EU anti-dumping investigation.

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Outlook:

India's steel export increase is likely to wane after October, particularly as risks of CBAM compliance become tighter for European purchasing. In India, the mills continue to depend considerably on coal-based BF-BOF methods, which render them susceptible to carbon pricing mechanisms in the major markets. The Middle East is still inclined toward Chinese suppliers, and over-reliance on a few export markets makes Indian producers sensitive to geopolitical and regulatory shocks. The sustainability of long-term exports will depend on the speed of investment by India in green steel pathways, increasing carbon traceability, and diversifying into other emerging markets like Africa and Southeast Asia. The short-term export is indeed high, but remaining relevant after the establishment of CBAM regulations will necessitate structural change.