In October 2025, the hot-rolled coil (HRC) market in India saw a distinct downward adjustment, with prices falling by around ₹1,200 a tonne, or 2.5%, amid weak demand and rising inventory levels. The difference between HRC and rebar of blast furnace origin significantly fell to ₹800 a tonne from ₹2,000 a tonne in September, indicating that flat steel prices fell more than long steel prices. The prices assessed on 31st October were ₹50,000/t for Mumbai, and in Delhi, it was ₹46,700/t. The price drops and market activity were clear outcomes of low domestic demand, with other sectors such as automotive and fabrication purchasing only as much steel as necessary for immediate needs. The trade slowed considerably in anticipation of the festive season, including holidays such as Navratri, Durga Puja, and Diwali. The festive days led to a thin market and even weaker than usual trading interest. Although mills pushed to change market sentiment by changing their list rates and reducing HRC and CRC prices by ₹750-1,500 per tonne earlier in the month, and then squeezing out another ₹500 per tonne upward price adjustment from end-September levels, continued oversupply and lack of trading sentiment remained a burden on market prices, which kept them under continual downward pressure.

Not only was domestic weakness a factor, but global market conditions remained unfavourable as well. Indian offers for HRC exports to the EU decreased during the month, remaining below Chinese offers to the Southeast Asia and Middle East regions. It is clear that established international pricing has softened. The global weakness impaired India's position to export as the Indian market became more reliant on domestic consumption, with stocks rising approximately 15% by the end of October, at a minimum. Towards the end of the month, there was some slight improvement in buying sentiment after festivities, but nothing substantial enough to suggest a turnaround of the bearish trend in the broader market context.

Outlook:

Thus, it has been anticipated that domestic prices are likely to remain rangebound, with a potential softer recovery supported by trade protections and a higher landed cost of imports. However, ongoing weakness in global prices and guarded demand recovery, along with liquidity issues, are likely to limit upside risk.