Indian HRC prices have moved upward over the past two months. The prices have jumped by ₹4,900 per tonne in January and have further increased by ₹900 per tonne in early February. The prices of domestic HRC were assessed at ₹53,900 per tonne. However, the list prices were also seen revised multiple times, resulting in a cumulative m-o-m increase of INR 2,500–3,250/t, signalling strong mill pricing intent.

Simultaneously, the safeguard duty has pushed imported HRC costs above domestic levels, creating a price premium for imports of around ₹3,200/t and anchoring domestic prices at elevated levels. The uptrend is primarily driven by the full implementation of the safeguard duty, which has reduced imports to an acceptable minimum quantity and reduced competitive pressure on domestic producers, as can be seen by the decline in large volume HRC imports compared to both the previous month and last year. Since imports continue to be relatively more expensive than domestic products, domestic HRC producers are in a strong position to support increased selling prices (realization,s as they are sometimes called) on their HRC products for the intermediate term.

Outlook:

Thus, the prices are expected to sustain a mild upward to stable trend; however, any sudden increase in supply from FTA countries or uneven demand recovery could introduce short-term volatility rather than a sustained sharp rally.