Key Takeaways:

• India's steel exports have risen by 20% YoY to 2.53 million tonnes in Apr-Jul FY'26
  
• Imports dropped 28.8% to 1.4 million tonnes, aided by safeguard duties.
• The European Union led growth export with a 26% rise, driven by CRC, HRC, and pipes.
• CRC exports surged by 56%, while HRC exports declined by 8% YoY.

Overview:

India’s steel trade landscape is shifting rapidly in FY’26 as exports pick up momentum and imports decline steeply. This is a development for the domestic steel sector, as finished steel exports (including stainless steel) jumped 20% y-o-y to 2.53 million tonnes during April–July 2025. Simultaneously, finished steel imports plunged by 28.8% in Q1 FY’26 to 1.4 million tonnes, reflecting improved self-sufficiency and the impact of trade protection measures.

This scenario indicates India is consolidating its position in the global steel market and also growing confidence among international buyers, especially amid volatile demand patterns and rising competition.

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EU Leads the Charge as India Expands Steel Export Footprint

The European Union (EU) has emerged as a key growth driver, with shipments surging 26% to 1.12 million tonnes. This rise in exports was mainly due to rising demand for hot-rolled coils (HRCs), cold-rolled coils (CRCs), and pipes and tubes. CRC exports to the EU rocketed by 68%, highlighting restocking activity and pricing advantage over EU-based mills.

Other key markets also supported the rally. Nepal witnessed 9% rise in steel imports from India, led by higher purchases of galvanised steel and wire rods. Turkey, a relatively smaller buyer, saw its imports from India nearly quadruple to 72,000 tonnes, with billets driving the increase. However, this growth was partially offset by a dramatic 79% fall in exports to Saudi Arabia, primarily due to a 90% drop in pipes and tubes shipments.

CRC, Billets Outperform; Galvanised Steel and HRC Take a Hit

India’s product mix in exports continues to evolve. While finished flat steel exports have increased by just 2% to 1.60 million tonnes, CRC stood out with a massive 56% surge in shipments. HRC/plate volumes, however, dropped 8% y-o-y, despite stronger buying from the EU, as orders from the UK and the Middle East slowed down.

Semi-finished steel exports, particularly billets, were a major highlight, rising 4x to 0.46 million tonnes due to aggressive buying from Turkey and the UK. Finished longs climbed 20%, while stainless steel exports edged up 5%, indicating broad-based demand across geographies.

On the other hand, galvanized steel exports declined 12%, hurt by softer demand in traditional markets such as Nepal and the UAE.

Lower Prices Spark Buying Frenzy in EU

Despite a generally cautious global steel market, Indian exporters gained ground in the EU not just because of stable quality but also due to aggressive pricing. Indian HRC export offers to the EU dropped from around $590/t FOB in March–April to $541/t in July, following India's exemption from provisional anti-dumping duties.

These lower offers made Indian steel highly competitive compared to EU domestic prices, which remained inflated due to soaring energy and carbon costs. This created a perfect window for EU buyers to secure supplies from India at attractive rates — even amid seasonal demand slowdowns.

Imports Crash by 29% in Q1 FY’26: Policy Impact Visible

India’s steel imports have declined significantly by 28.8% to 1.4 million tonnes in Q1 FY’26. This has been achieved with continuous support from the government, and the recent 12% safeguard duty on select flat products appears to be having its impact. The measure introduced in April 2025 aimed to curb low-cost inflows and protect the domestic industry.

As per data, it was analysed that Imports from China had plunged by 45.8%, while Japan’s volumes plummeted by 65.2%. South Korea, the top supplier, saw a more modest 6.5% drop, with shipments totalling 0.5 million tonnes. These declines underscore India's shift toward domestic substitution and the success of recent trade policy interventions.

Exports Still Down in 7MCY’25

Though the current data shows encouraging trends but the calendar year performance remains underwhelming. During January–July 2025 (7MCY’25), India’s finished steel exports have dipped 19% y-o-y at 4.3 million tonnes, down from 5.3 million tonnes last year. The decline was driven mainly by a 33% drop in flat steel exports, particularly to the EU and the Middle East.

This indicates that while recent months have rebounded, the sector is still grappling in key markets largely due to excess Chinese supply and cautious international buying sentiment.

Outlook: India’s Steel Trade Bounces Back, But Challenges Loom

In FY 26, India’s steel sector has started on a robust note, with exports surging 20% and imports plunging nearly 30%. With strategic pricing, growing demand from the EU and Turkey, and the right policy measures like safeguard duties have collectively narrowed the trade gap and improved industry performance.

Thus, the future looks cautiously optimistic. The current export momentum, driven by competitive pricing and diversified market outreach, is promising. Nevertheless, sustaining this growth will be challenging amid intensifying global competition, especially from low-cost producers like China, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia.

Seasonal demand softness in Europe and the Gulf may temporarily dampen export volumes, but a post-summer rebound, especially in the Middle East, could provide support. Indian mills have already resumed HRC export offers to the region in August, encouraged by rising Chinese export prices.

A significant external variable is the upcoming full rollout of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2026. While it could increase compliance costs, it also presents a strategic opportunity for Indian producers to position low-emissions steel as a premium offering, especially as EU-based mills struggle with elevated energy and carbon expenses.

Thus, to stay competitive, Indian steelmakers must remain agile, adapting their market strategies, investing in sustainable production, and focusing on value-added products. The window of opportunity is open, but capitalizing on it will require speed, strategy, and resilience in an increasingly volatile global landscape.